Friday, February 22, 2013

Hello, everybody. I'll get to my Oscar preview in a jiffy, but we begin with another Oscar.

If O.J. Simpson had the Trial of the 20th Century, then Oscar Pistorius' may be the Trial of the 21st Century. On Friday, the South African athlete who inspired the world last summer at the Olympics was released on 1 million rand bail ($113,000) as his reputation was put to the test over the shooting death of his girlfriend, model Reeva Steenkamp.

The bail hearing lasted four days, and Pistorius said in a sworn statement that he accidentally killed Steenkamp on Valentine's Day last week, thinking she was an intruder in his Pretoria home. But prosecutors begged to differ, saying that a loud argument between the two led to the murder. Due to the seriousness of the charge, Pistorius would've faced the harshest bail requirements in South Africa, more harsh than here in the States.

Just like O.J., Pistorius' reputation and image may have been tarnished for the long haul. Will the Blade Runner get back on track? It all depends on his fate stemming from the criminal trial yet to come.

Back here in the States, the Justice Department also on Friday joined the fraud lawsuit against an already disgraced athlete: Lance Armstrong, as the former seven-time Tour de France champion has defrauded his sponsor, the U.S. Postal Service, by concealing his use of banned substances and performance-enhancing drugs.

For the USPS, it was another black eye as the other week, they announced they were going to discontinue mail service on Saturday effective in August. I guess the two bits of news proved to be bad delivery.

And now we segue from Oscar and Lance to the Oscars: The 85th Annual Academy Awards on Sunday, as host/Best Song nominee Seth MacFarlane plans to pull no punches by perking up the usually stodgy but still prestigious ceremony as it celebrates its 60th anniversary on television.

Ratings have been up and down in the last few years, and the Oscars have tried everything in their power with surprise presenters (2009), director Hamish Hamilton and "And the winner is..." replacing "And the Oscar goes to..." (2010; thankfully, Hamilton would be shown the door), infusing some youth in hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway (the latter which I'll get to, 2011), and even bringing back Billy Crystal as host (2012). The cost for ad time has even jumped to $1.7 million for a 30-second spot, as the Oscars are attempting to rival the Super Bowl in that. 

Two advertisers know the power of the year's two most-watched television events very well: Apple and Coca-Cola. Apple used Super Bowl XVIII in 1984 to show their famous Macintosh commercial, and the first commercial for the iPad debuted during the 2010 Oscars. Diet Coke is generally seen on the Oscarcast, while the flagship Coke product is reserved for the Super Bowl.

But now let's get on this year's awards: "Lincoln" leads the way with 12 nominations, but not even a Director snub for Ben Affleck couldn't stop "Argo" from collecting major honors along the way and is already the heavy favorite to take Best Picture. But if not either the two, it could be "Amour" (also up for Foreign Language Film), "Beasts of the Southern Wild", "Django Unchained", "Les Miserables", "Life of Pi", "Silver Linings Playbook", or "Zero Dark Thirty" in an upset.

Supporting Actor may be about Christoph Waltz vs. Tommy Lee Jones, as both of them or Alan Arkin want to make it two. Then again, you have two-time winner Robert De Niro (gunning for his first Oscar since 1980) and 2005 Best Actor Philip Seymour Hoffman. Anne Hathaway is a guaranteed lock for Supporting Actress, but then there's two-timer Sally Field, 1997 Best Actress Helen Hunt, and returnees Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver.

For Best Actor, it could be all about Daniel Day-Lewis; he has won that in 1990 and 2007. Denzel Washington also wants to make it three overall, but there's a snowball's chance in hell he, Bradley Cooper, 1999 Oscars host Hugh Jackman, or Joaquin Phoenix could take the stage. 

And then there's Best Actress. When the nominations came out, Jessica Chastain appeared to be the early favorite...that is, until Jennifer Lawrence steamrolled her with Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild honors. But Emmanuelle Riva's BAFTA win tested Jennifer's nerve just a bit, therefore tightening the race as Riva -- or maybe 9-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis -- wants to make Oscar history. In other words, Academy voters may wish Emmanuelle a very happy birthday their way on Sunday; she turns 86. Oh, and Naomi Watts is in there as well, but who cares?

Whose names will be engraved on that 8.5 lb. symbol of cinematic excellence after Sunday night? I already did a few of the lesser-known categories on Thursday, so here are the ones that really matter:

Supporting Actor: At first, it was going to be a duel between Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz, but come on! They already own that prize, and as we've found out last year with Meryl Streep, over three decades should be good enough for Robert De Niro as well.
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (duh!)
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (double duh!)
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva may be a veteran who's been in the game longer than the other nominees, but let's face it: Her BAFTA won't guarantee her the Oscar that quick. When it comes right down to it, she has had a stellar year with "The Hunger Games" and a sequel on the way, plus her performance in "Silver Linings Playbook" has already drawn praise all around. So it's easy to say that we can't wait for Jean Dujardin to open the envelope and say Jennifer Lawrence's name!
Director: Steven Spielberg ("Lincoln")
Best Picture: "Argo"

We'll see how I fare on Sunday night when the richest prizes in entertainment will be handed out. Follow me on Twitter @jonathanallen as I'll be live tweeting the Oscars; a full recap will follow on Monday's blog. So long and stay strong.

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